Future Scenarios of the Kashmir Crisis based on Actors' Interests

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Assistant Professor of Khatam Al Anbia Air Defense University

2 Assistant Professor of Khatam Al-Anbia Army Air Defense University

3 p h.D of Political Science,

Abstract

There are many critical and controversial geographic regions in the Asian, some of which are the legacy of British colonialism. Each of these areas has the capacity to turn into a full-scale conflict region. Kashmir is one of the regions that has been the place of conflict between the governments of the South Asian region (India-Pakistan and China) for more than seventy years, and the dispute between India and Pakistan over the Kashmir region has caused three wars in 1948, 1965, and1971. The current research seeks to answer the question; what scenarios can be drawn for the future of the Kashmir crisis? This article has answered this question by using the method of actor interest analysis (beneficiary) - which is one of the relatively new methods in the science of future research. The findings of the research show that based on the interests of the main actors and participants in the crisis, the scenarios of referendum for Kashmir independence, maintaining the status quo, joining India, joining Pakistan, the possibility of an all-out war between India and Pakistan and the outbreak of civil war in Kashmir was drawn. The most possible realistic situation that can be imagined for the future of the Kashmir region is the continuation of the status quo (uncertainty of the Kashmir region) or the increase of tensions between the two countries of India and Pakistan and, accordingly, Radical movements will be taken by popular and Muslim movements and movements inside Kashmir.

Keywords

References

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Crisis Studies of the Islamic World
Volume 10, Issue 2 - Serial Number 29
Summer Quarterly
September 2023
Pages 48-81

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