Explanation of the Karabakh Crisis based on Brecher's Crisis Management Model

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Doctorate in international relations and expert of the Army Strategic Studies Center

2 Master of International Relations, University of Tehran

Abstract

Explanation of the Karabakh Crisis based on Brecher's Crisis Management Model. The Nagorno-Karabakh crisis was an ethnic and territorial conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the mountainous Nagorno-Karabakh region that lasted for more than thirty years. Finally, in September 2023, after a siege of several months, the Republic of Azerbaijan succeeded in completely capturing Karabagh. This crisis had historical, ethnic, religious and geopolitical roots, which have expanded and decreased under the influence of environmental variables. The main question of the article is what factors contributed to the rise of the Karabakh crisis?(question). In this research, Process-Tracing method (method) and Michael Brecher's crisis management theory (theoretical framework) have been used. Findings of the research indicate that in the emergence and escalation of the crisis between the two countries,  the territorial proximity, ethnic-religious conflicts, geopolitical competitions of regional and extra-regional actors played a significant role.  This crisis ended not with a diplomatic solution but with the use of force. According to Burcher's crisis management model, if an international crisis is ended by force, it will bring less stability. Therefore, the re-formation of the crisis between Baku and Yerevan is likely. In the post-crisis period, tensions can be seen in Armenia as a result of the influx of refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh to this country and people's dissatisfaction with Pashinyan. At the regional level, the balance of power has changed in favor of Baku, which can cause this country's adventures in the region in relation to Iran and Armenia. Also, the extensive presence of Turkey and Israel in the South Caucasus will intensify regional competition (findings).

Keywords

References

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Crisis Studies of the Islamic World
Volume 10, Issue 4 - Serial Number 31
Winter Quarterly
March 2024
Pages 164-186

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