Crisis Studies of the Islamic World

Crisis Studies of the Islamic World

Forecasting the Area of Water Resources of the Tigris and Euphrates River Basin in 2040 and the Effects of Water Reduction on Geopolitical Conflicts

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
1 Political Geography, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Remote Sensing and GIS, University of Tehran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Political Geography, University of Tehran
4 Ph.D. student of Political Geography, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran
Abstract
Machine learning algorithms were used to predict the area of water resources in the Tigris and Euphrates River basins. A descriptive-analytical method analyzed the relationship between water resource forecasting and geopolitical conflicts. The study’s main question is how changes in water resource areas from 2000 to 2023 will impact geopolitical tensions by 2040. Predictions indicate a decline in water resources from 8,356.16 km² in 2020 to 5,956.04 km² in 2040, with the gradient boost method achieving the highest accuracy. This reduction is driven by Turkey’s dam construction in the upper Tigris basin and climate change, leading to a water crisis and heightened geopolitical tensions among Iran, Turkey, Syria, and Iraq. Hydropolitical challenges are expected to create both tensions and opportunities for cooperation among basin countries. To address these challenges, the study suggests establishing a regional union for integrated water resource management. This union would include all four basin countries and aim to reduce tensions through collaborative water governance and sustainable resource management. Integrated efforts are essential to mitigate climate change impacts, ensure equitable water distribution, and prevent future conflicts. The research emphasizes the urgent need for regional cooperation to balance competing interests and secure the future of shared water resources.
Keywords

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Volume 11, Issue 4 - Serial Number 35
Winter Quarterly
Winter 2025
Pages 163-193

  • Receive Date 27 October 2024
  • Revise Date 07 December 2024
  • Accept Date 18 December 2024