1
Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Payam Noor University, Tehran, Iran
2
Associate Professor of International Relations, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran.
Abstract
Following the Second Karabakh War in 2020, the dispute over the establishment of the "Zangezur Corridor" emerged as one of the most significant geopolitical crises in the South Caucasus. Intended to connect Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan through Armenian territory, the project provoked widespread sensitivities due to its potential impact on the region's geopolitical map. Meanwhile, Armenia's strategic turn toward the West and its deepening security and political cooperation with the United States and the European Union reshaped the dynamics of this conflict, culminating in the agreement known as the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity. Drawing on Stephen Walt's "Balance of Threat" theoretical framework and a descriptive–analytical method, this study examines the implications of TRIPP for the national interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The central question is how Armenia's convergence with the West can simultaneously generate opportunities and threats for Iran. The findings suggest that TRIPP offers tactical opportunities, such as preventing the realization of an extraterritorial corridor and preserving the Iran–Armenia border, while also posing long-term strategic challenges, including increased U.S. influence along Iran's northern frontier and the weakening of regional mechanisms. Iran faces a dual and complex situation, requiring active, intelligent, and multifaceted diplomacy to maximize opportunities and mitigate threats.
Korani,Z and Ahmadian,G . (2026). Consequences of the Caucasus Transit Agreement: An Analysis of Geopolitical Opportunities and Challenges for the Islamic Republic of Iran. (e737645). Crisis Studies of the Islamic World, (), e737645
MLA
Korani,Z , and Ahmadian,G . "Consequences of the Caucasus Transit Agreement: An Analysis of Geopolitical Opportunities and Challenges for the Islamic Republic of Iran" .e737645 , Crisis Studies of the Islamic World, , , 2026, e737645.
HARVARD
Korani Z, Ahmadian G. (2026). 'Consequences of the Caucasus Transit Agreement: An Analysis of Geopolitical Opportunities and Challenges for the Islamic Republic of Iran', Crisis Studies of the Islamic World, (), e737645.
CHICAGO
Z Korani and G Ahmadian, "Consequences of the Caucasus Transit Agreement: An Analysis of Geopolitical Opportunities and Challenges for the Islamic Republic of Iran," Crisis Studies of the Islamic World, (2026): e737645,
VANCOUVER
Korani Z, Ahmadian G. Consequences of the Caucasus Transit Agreement: An Analysis of Geopolitical Opportunities and Challenges for the Islamic Republic of Iran. Crisis Studies of the Islamic World. 2026;():e737645 (In Persian).
